National Football League

2023 NFL awards predictions: Expert picks for MVP, DPOY, Rookies of the Year, more

Updated Sep. 6, 2023 12:08 p.m. ET

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FOX Sports NFL Staff

The 2023-24 NFL season is mere days away. Which players are most worth watching? Who could emerge as a breakout star this year, or further cement their status as one of the league's best?

FOX Sports' staff of NFL writers made predictions ahead of the season, for everything from the MVP Award to Coach of the Year. Here's how they voted and why.

Most Valuable Player: Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow

Henry McKenna: Burrow has everything he needs to win the award: 1) he's a quarterback, 2) he's going to make the playoffs and 3) his supporting cast will put him in contention to break some passing records. It's actually insane to think that Burrow has Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Tight end Irv Smith, an offseason acquisition, brings a compelling element in the passing game. And Cincy's offensive line shouldn't be prohibitively bad, particularly with a quick processor like Burrow under center. It should be a huge year for Burrow.

I'll acknowledge the elephant in the room: Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs QB seemingly deserves the award every year. But maybe his numbers won't be up to par with his incredible standards. Tight end Travis Kelce will likely miss some time after hyperextending his knee. 

He was the only sure thing in the offense, one set to feature running backs Isaiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire and receivers Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore and other unknowns. That cast should open the door for Burrow. He'll slam down that proverbial door like he's in the Big Bird meme.

[2023-24 Super Bowl predictions from the FOX Sports staff]

Offensive Player of the Year: San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey

Eric D. Williams: He totaled 1,210 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns in 11 regular-season games with San Francisco after a midseason trade from the Carolina Panthers. With a full offseason to better familiarize himself with head coach Kyle Shanahan's offense, McCaffrey should be one of the top offensive weapons in the NFL if he can stay healthy. McCaffrey is deadliest catching the ball out of the backfield, leading all running backs with 741 receiving yards in 2022.

Herd Hierarchy: 49ers, Chiefs, Bengals battle for No. 1 in Colin's Top 10 entering Week 1

Defensive Player of the Year: Dallas Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons

David Helman: It’s hard to improve on two All-Pro selections and a Defensive Rookie of the Year award in your first two seasons, but Micah Parsons possesses that kind of talent. If he can terrorize opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks the way he did his own teammates throughout training camp, he’s got a great shot at DPOY. If he’s going to take it home, it could be as simple as finishing strong. As a rookie, he posted just one sack in the Cowboys’ final four games of the season. Last year, he managed just 1.5 in his last six outings. A more consistent showing in Year 3 would give him a great shot at the award, and the rest of his defense is good enough to help him do it.

Ralph Vacchiano: There aren't many players who can affect all phases of an opposing offense better than Cowboys LB Micah Parsons. He's a do-it-all player who is all over the field. And the voters know it, too. He's been a runner-up for this award in each of his first two NFL seasons, and he even got MVP votes last year. The one thing holding him back is that voters often are seduced by stats and if there's anyone pushing 20 sacks Parsons might not get enough to beat them. He's had 13 and 13 ½ in his first two seasons, complemented by a ton of QB hits, pressures and TFLs. Those are great. But if he can push his sack numbers to 17 or 18 he might win this award unanimously.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson

Greg Auman: He's enough of a favorite that you wonder who you'd take if it was Robinson vs. The Field. This is despite three QBs going in the top four picks — Vegas seems to be counting on none of them really finding themselves quickly enough to make a compelling case. The closest RB challenger would be the Lions' Jahmyr Gibbs, but Robinson will be heavily involved in Atlanta's offense, as a primary ball-carrier and frequent pass-catcher, so we're just trusting he'll have the same playmaking ability he showed at Texas.

Williams: Perhaps the most complete back to enter the league since LaDainian Tomlinson was selected No. 5 overall by the Chargers in the 2001 draft, the electric Robinson has a chance to put up some jaw-dropping numbers in Arthur Smith's run-oriented attack. The Texas product will have to share carries with Tyler Allgeier, who rushed for 1,035 yards last season, but Robinson brings versatility with his ability to line out wide and run routes like a receiver. He should be a valuable chess piece in the passing game in addition to what he adds as a runner.

Will Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey or Patrick Mahomes win OPOY?

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Houston Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr.

Ben Arthur: Anderson has been NFL-ready for at least a couple of years, based on his performance at Alabama. And he'll be playing out of a three-point stance at defensive end in Texans coach DeMeco Ryans' defense, which Anderson says he's comfortable in. It sets him up to be a legitimate double-digit sack threat as a rookie. He excelled against the run at Alabama too, and that should translate to the next level, helping a run defense that was historically poor last season. 

Anderson might already be Houston's best defensive lineman. The additions the Texans have made on the interior D-line (Sheldon Rankins, Hassan Ridgeway, fourth-round rookie Dylan Horton), plus a fully-healthy Jonathan Greenard — who led Houston with eight sacks in 2021 — on the edge gives Houston's front enough respectability up front that opposing teams won't be able to just focus on stopping Anderson, helping the rookie's production. 

Carmen Vitali: Anderson Jr. is already a pro. That’s what happens when you play collegiate football at Alabama. But more than that, he’s technically sound while being extraordinarily powerful and athletic. That should allow him to absolutely dominate at the next level. He’s also under the tutelage of a smart, physical former player in head coach DeMeco Ryans. The Texans are building something. They wouldn’t have traded up with Arizona to get Anderson if they didn’t want to send the rebuild into overdrive. And if they’re really building the defense around him and Anderson lives up to the bill, he's an easy frontrunner for the award.

2023 AFC South Preview ft. Jaguars, Titans, Colts & Texans

Comeback Player of the Year: Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin

Geoff Schwartz: Damar Hamlin's story is unlike anything we've seen in NFL history, and barring something stunning, he is going to win this award. Hamlin's heart stopped on a football field last season and as we head in the 2023 season he's made the Bills roster. While it appears he won't be starting, as the Bills are healthier at safety to start this season, he's going to have a jersey on gameday and that's plenty enough to win this award.

Breakout player: Pittsburgh Steelers QB Kenny Pickett

McKenna: This is as much a vote of confidence in Pickett as it is in his supporting cast. His offensive line should be among the top units in the NFL. And it feels like receiver George Pickens is on the verge of taking over the world. I'm probably buying into the hype too much, but it really feels like Pickens could make Diontae Johnson the second fiddle in Pittsburgh. Even if Pickens isn't the phenom everyone expects him to be, Pickett can take a massive leap forward in this offense. He showed solid quarterback play in 2022 in his rookie season. He can manage a game. That's enough for the Steelers' offense to help buoy his stats in a big way.

Honorable mention: Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love

Why Steelers, Ravens are frontrunners for AFC North title

Coach of the Year: Jacksonville Jaguars HC Doug Pederson

Arthur: Pederson was in the coach-of-the-year conversation last year, after the Jaguars turned a 4-8 start to the season into a five-game winning streak and an AFC South title. But he should be right in the mix again. The benchmark is probably Jacksonville entering the AFC's upper echelon, and on paper, it has a chance to do that. Trevor Lawrence has established himself as a true franchise quarterback, the team is returning 20 of 22 starters and are adding receiver Calvin Ridley to an already dynamic passing attack. 

If the Jags take care of a relatively weak AFC South as expected and can steal some games against their tougher opponents this season (Chiefs, Bills, at Steelers, 49ers, Bengals, Ravens), this is an 11-plus win team. And that should do the trick for Pederson.

Vacchiano: A really strong case could have been made for Pederson last year when he took over a 3-14 team and got them to 9-8 and the playoffs. But not even a season-ending, 7-2 surge could get him above third in the voting. The expectations are higher in Jacksonville now, but Pederson has the team and, more importantly, the quarterback to meet them. Plus, the AFC South might be the weakest division in the NFL, which will help pad the Jags' record. In other words, everything is set up for the Jaguars to take a huge step closer to some of the many elite teams in the AFC. If they do, the voters won't overlook Pederson again.

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These awards predictions were made by:

AFC South reporter Ben Arthur (@benyarthur)
NFC South reporter Greg Auman (@gregauman)
Dallas Cowboys reporter David Helman (@davidhelman_)
AFC East reporter Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis)
NFL and betting analyst Geoff Schwartz (@GeoffSchwartz)
NFC West reporter Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams)
NFC East reporter Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano)
NFC North reporter Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV)
Columnist Martin Rogers (@MRogersFOX)

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